Oil rises as investors reassess Middle East ceasefire prospects
Tokyo/Singapore, March 2026 – Oil rose more than $1 per barrel on Thursday, clawing back losses from the previous session, on concerns that protracted fighting in the Middle East will further disrupt energy flows.
Brent futures rose $1.65, or 1.61%, to $103.87 a barrel by 0424 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $1.49, or 1.65%, at $91.81 a barrel.
Both benchmarks slumped more than 2% on Wednesday.
Iran is still reviewing a U.S. proposal to end the war, but has no intention of holding talks to end the Middle East conflict, Iran’s foreign minister said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump will hit Iran harder if Tehran fails to accept that the country has been “defeated militarily”, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said.
“Optimism regarding a ceasefire has faded,” said Tsuyoshi Ueno, senior economist at NLI Research Institute.
He added that the bar set by Washington appeared high, leaving oil prices vulnerable to further volatility depending on negotiations and military actions by both sides.
Trump’s 15-point proposal, sent through Pakistan, calls for removing Iran’s stocks of highly enriched uranium, halting enrichment, curbing its ballistic missile program and cutting off funding for regional allies, according to three Israeli cabinet sources familiar with the plan.
The conflict has all but halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas supply. The International Energy Agency has called it the biggest-ever oil supply disruption.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi asked IEA chief Fatih Birol for an additional coordinated release of oil stockpiles during talks on Wednesday, as Tokyo seeks to hedge against a prolonged Middle East conflict.
Adding to supply concerns, at least 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers, according to Reuters calculations based on market data.
Iraqi oil production has slumped, with storage tanks reaching high and critical levels, three Iraqi energy officials said on Wednesday.
U.S. crude inventories rose by 6.9 million barrels to 456.2 million barrels in the week ended March 20, the highest since June 2024 and far exceeding analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 477,000-barrel increase. (Reuters)
