Debt, supply gaps limit benefits of energy reforms- Experts
Lagos, Oct. 2026 (TBL Africa) Some oil and gas experts say reforms introduced since May 2023 have reshaped Nigeria’s energy sector, but debt, infrastructure gaps and supply constraints have limited their benefits to consumers.
The experts spoke separately in Lagos on Thursday, as Nigeria marks its 66th Independence Anniversary.
President Bola Tinubu, in his third-anniversary address in May, said his administration had not solved every problem but was working to ensure that the benefits of its reforms were felt more directly in the daily lives of Nigerians.
Dr Ayodele Oni, an energy lawyer and Chairman, Energy and Natural Resources Practice Group, Bloomfield Law Practice, said the removal of petrol subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange market ended an unsustainable fiscal burden and fully deregulated the downstream petroleum market.
He said the Dangote Refinery had also strengthened domestic refining capacity and reduced dependence on fuel imports.
Oni said the Electricity Act 2023 changed the structure of the power sector by allowing states to regulate their electricity markets.
“The Electricity Act has succeeded as architecture but has yet to succeed as experience,” he said.
He said available electricity generation stood at 5,403.3 megawatts (MW) on Sept. 22, compared with a peak of 5,801.84MW recorded in March 2025.
He said the figure remained far below the country’s installed generation capacity of 13,014.40MW.
Oni said generation fell below 3,000MW earlier in 2026 due to gas shortages.
He said the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission had approved more than 57 billion dollars in Field Development Plans since 2024, while crude and condensate production reached 1.735 million barrels per day in June, the highest level since April 2020.
He, however, identified sectoral debt as a major obstacle to investment.
“The sector’s unpaid debts are what keep serious capital from walking through the door,” Oni said.
He said electricity generating companies had reported more than N7 trillion in outstanding debts, while payment constraints affecting gas suppliers were also limiting power generation.
Prof. Kenneth Ife, a development economist and President, Institute of Professional Economists and Policy Management, said subsidy removal initially placed significant pressure on households and businesses as higher energy prices and naira devaluation increased operating costs.
Ife said the Dangote Refinery had reduced reliance on imported petroleum products and introduced competition into the domestic market.
He said Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) offered a cheaper alternative to petrol, with some users reporting spending about N20,000 for mileage that previously cost about N70,000 with petrol.
Ife said wider adoption of CNG would require more filling stations and increased private sector participation.
He said the key test of the energy reforms was whether they could reduce energy, transport and production costs for households and businesses.
“Higher energy, transport and input costs translate to higher food inflation, general cost escalation, lower competitiveness and deeper multidimensional poverty,” he said.
Dr Olukayode Akinrolabu, a member of the Science and Technology Education Research Group, Lagos State University, said the results of the electricity reforms had been mixed.
Akinrolabu, who is also Chairman, Eko Electricity Distribution Company Customer Consultative Forum, Festac/Satellite Town, said power generation reached a record 6,003MW in March 2025, but the national grid recorded about 22 system collapses since May 2023.
He said electricity supply averaged between 4,000MW and 5,000MW, against estimated national demand of about 30,000MW, forcing many consumers to rely on generators.
Akinrolabu said tariff reforms had improved revenue for distribution companies but had not resolved challenges across generation, transmission and distribution.
“Tariffs fixed the cash flow without fixing generation, transmission and distribution, so consumers now pay more for largely the same unstable four-to-eight hours of supply,” he said.
He said gas constraints had left about 4,000MW of generation capacity stranded.
Akinrolabu called for transmission expansion, reliable domestic gas supply, settlement of power sector debts, mass metering and stronger performance standards for DisCos.
He also called for measures to reduce electricity theft and revenue leakages.
“Without these, all reforms remain tariff on paper while households still buy diesel and PMS,” he said.
Akinrolabu said the reforms must ultimately deliver reliable electricity and reduce households’ dependence on costly alternative energy sources to produce meaningful benefits for Nigerians.
The Federal Government in April approved a N3.3 trillion plan to settle verified legacy debts in the power sector, with the aim of restoring liquidity and improving electricity reliability.
