2027: policy continuity, strong institutions critical to Nigeria’s oil, gas sector — Oni
Dr Ayodele Oni, an energy expert, says policy continuity and strong institutions will be critical to sustaining investment and growth in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry beyond the 2027 electoral cycle.
Oni stated this while speaking on “Impact of Politics on Nigeria’s Oil and Gas Industry and Economy: The Role of the Media” at a media engagement.
Oni who is also Partner and Chair of the Energy and Natural Resources Practice Group at Bloomfield Law Practice, said politics did not change the country’s oil reserves, but could significantly affect the regulatory, fiscal, investment and security environment surrounding the petroleum industry.
According to him, the 2027 elections should prompt Nigerians to focus not only on political leadership but also on the policies and institutions required to sustain economic growth.
“Nigeria enters this period with an industry showing measurable recovery,” Oni said.
He noted that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported about 37.01 billion barrels of 2P crude oil and condensate reserves and 215.19 trillion cubic feet of 2P gas reserves as at Jan. 1, 2026.
He added that crude oil and condensate production averaged 1.735 million barrels per day in June 2026, with crude oil production alone reaching about 1.56 million barrels per day.
Oni said the wider economy had also recorded growth, noting that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.89 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026.
He, however, said that despite the growing contribution of the non-oil sector to GDP, the country remained vulnerable to developments in the petroleum sector because oil and gas continued to play a major role in foreign exchange earnings, public finances and investment sentiment.
He said recent investment decisions in the sector showed that reforms were beginning to influence investor confidence.
Oni cited Shell’s Final Investment Decision (FID) on the Bonga North project in December 2024, as well as the FID on the HI gas project by Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company and Sunlink Energies and Resources in October 2025.
He also cited the Federal Government’s statement that FIDs since 2023, including Bonga North, Ubeta and HI, exceeded 8 billion dollars.
According to him, NNPC Ltd. also announced in March 2026 that presidential approval had been secured for targeted fiscal incentives to facilitate the FID on the Bonga Southwest Aparo project, which it estimated could attract about 20 billion dollars in foreign direct investment.
Oni further noted that NUPRC announced in July 2026 that ExxonMobil and its partners had committed 1 billion dollars to the Usan Infill Project in OML 138, expected to add about 40,000 barrels per day.
He said NUPRC had also reported more than 57 billion dollars in approved Field Development Plans since 2024 and expected 22 major offshore projects between 2026 and 2030, with estimated investment potential of 30 billion to 50 billion dollars.
“The lesson is simple: investment responds to the structure of incentives and risk.
“A project does not reach FID because a minister makes a speech. It reaches FID because the expected return, after geological, fiscal, regulatory, technical, security and market risk, justifies committing capital,” he said.
Oni urged the government to focus on making projects executable rather than simply announcing them.
He said regulators should ensure predictable processes, timely approvals and protection of the public interest without compromising regulatory standards.
Licensing round
On the 2025 oil licensing round, Oni said NUPRC announced on July 21, 2026 that 31 companies had emerged winners of 37 oil and gas blocks following 200 bids from 143 companies.
He said the blocks covered onshore, shallow-water, deep offshore and frontier basins, including the Benue Trough and the Chad, Anambra and Benin basins.
He, however, cautioned that winning a block did not automatically translate into production or profitability.
“Winning a block is not a commercial discovery. A discovery is not an approved Field Development Plan. An approved FDP is not FID. FID is not first oil.
“First oil is not sustainable production, and production is not necessarily profitable production,” he said.
Oni urged journalists to understand and explain such distinctions when reporting developments in the petroleum industry.
Gas, downstream sector
The energy lawyer said gas would be critical to Nigeria’s efforts to transform its petroleum resources into a broader industrial economy.
He said gas development could support power generation, fertiliser production, petrochemicals, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and industrial clusters.
He cited the HI and Ubeta gas projects as part of the emerging investment in the sector.
“Gas reserves only become economically meaningful when the molecule moves,” he said, stressing the need for processing plants, pipelines, metering, offtake agreements and payment security.
Oni also said downstream petroleum policies remained particularly important because Nigerians experienced the sector through the prices of petrol, diesel, cooking gas, transportation and electricity.
He said the test of downstream policies should be whether they were fiscally sustainable, economically productive and socially manageable.
He also noted that increased private refining capacity, including the Dangote refinery, alongside efforts to rehabilitate public refineries, showed the need for competition, reliable crude supply and regulatory certainty.
On host communities, Oni said communities should be treated as stakeholders in the long-term stability of petroleum assets.
He cautioned against turning host communities into instruments of electoral competition or pressuring operators to make commitments outside established legal and commercial frameworks because of elections.
2027 and policy continuity
Oni said the significance of the 2027 election for the petroleum industry was not merely who occupied political offices but whether the country could sustain the reform and investment momentum.
He said major oil and gas projects required long-term certainty and could not be planned around changing political slogans or policies.
According to him, election cycles could create pressure to reopen fiscal terms, influence regulatory decisions, increase risks to production infrastructure and heighten tensions in host communities.
“These are risks investors price into projects, and a higher risk premium can mean fewer projects reaching FID,” he said.
Oni said strong institutions were therefore more important than political personalities.
“A strong petroleum policy is one that can survive a change in political leadership,” he said.
He urged political actors preparing for the 2027 elections to explain not only what they intended to change but also what they planned to preserve in the country’s economic and regulatory framework.
Media’s role
Oni said the media had an important role to play in reducing information gaps and helping citizens understand developments in the oil and gas sector.
He cited Section 22 of the 1999 Constitution, which assigns the mass media responsibility for upholding the accountability of government to the people.
He urged journalists to go beyond reporting government announcements and follow projects through their various stages, from licensing and FID to construction, production and commercial performance.
“If 20 billion dollars is said to be unlocked, the next story should ask how much has been committed, what approvals remain, what local content is expected and when production will begin,” he said.
He also urged journalists to track the implementation of oil and gas projects, refinery throughput, electricity generation and the impact of investments on citizens.
“Accountability of this kind is not hostile. It is rigorous,” he said.
Oni said responsible journalism should report both challenges and measurable progress in the industry.
He said reporting production recovery, new FIDs, investments and licensing developments did not amount to supporting government, just as reporting theft, corruption or failed projects did not amount to opposing it.
“The role of the media is not to manufacture pessimism in order to appear independent, nor to manufacture optimism in order to appear patriotic. Its role is to report reality,” he said.
Oni said Nigeria’s petroleum industry was currently in transition and could serve as a platform for industrial development if the country focused on execution.
He said the challenge was to move projects from FID to construction, production, revenue generation and ultimately broader economic transformation.
He urged journalists to “follow the money” by asking where investments came from, what incentives were provided, what risks were borne by government and investors, what Nigeria received and what happened to host communities.
Oni said Nigeria’s objective should not simply be to produce more oil and export more gas but to create more value and build industries around its energy resources.
“Institutions must be stronger than political cycles. Contracts must be more durable than political personalities. Regulatory frameworks must be more predictable than campaign rhetoric, and public information must be more reliable than social-media speculation,” he said.
