Goldman Sachs lowers second-quarter 2026 oil price forecasts
Washington, April 2026 — Goldman Sachs trimmed its second‑quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and U.S. crude to $90 and $87 a barrel, respectively, late on Wednesday, after the U.S. and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire.
Previously, the bank forecast Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to average $99 and $91 a barrel, respectively.
“Given the reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through the SoH (Strait of Hormuz), we nudge down our Q2 forecast for Brent/WTI,” the bank said in a note.
Brent crude oil prices are down over 11% so far this week amid hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen after U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
However, prices rose on Thursday on concerns that supply from the key Middle East producing region may not fully resume amid doubts about the ceasefire holding and as the crucial strait remains restricted.
Goldman kept its third-quarter forecast unchanged at $82 for Brent and $77 for WTI, and for the fourth quarter at $80 for Brent and $75 for WTI.
The bank said risks to its price forecasts remain skewed to the upside, reflecting the potential for longer‑lasting disruptions and more persistent crude production losses.
In a severe case where the ceasefire doesn’t hold and with persistent Middle East production losses of around 2 million barrels per day, Brent could average closer to $115 in the fourth quarter, the bank said.
Goldman also lowered its second-quarter European benchmark TTF gas price forecast to 50 euros per megawatt-hour (EUR/MWh) from 70 EUR/MWh, on the assumption of gradual normalisation of LNG flows through Hormuz from mid-April.
However, if LNG flows are significantly delayed or production infrastructure is damaged, prices will likely go above 75 EUR/MWh, Goldman added. (Reuters)
Dangote Refinery has rolled back its recent hike in fuel prices, reducing the ex-gantry cost of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) by N75 to N1,200 per litre, according to industry insiders on Wednesday.
This adjustment comes shortly after the refinery increased petrol prices to around N1,275 per litre, attributing the rise to instability in the global oil market that pushed up production and supply costs.
The latest reduction is linked to a significant drop in global crude oil prices. Brent crude futures declined to $95.05 per barrel, representing a 13 per cent decrease, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $97.18, falling by nearly 14 per cent.
Experts say the downturn in oil prices is largely driven by geopolitical shifts in the Middle East, especially a conditional two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, which has reduced fears of supply disruptions.
Fuel marketers and commuters in major cities have reacted positively to the development, expressing hope that the lower price will help ease the burden of rising living costs amid ongoing inflation.
Observers within the energy sector believe the refinery’s price cut could have a ripple effect on retail petrol prices across the country, particularly if the global decline in crude oil prices continues.
Analysts also point out that the situation highlights Nigeria’s increasing sensitivity to international oil price movements, despite improvements in domestic refining capacity.
The Dangote Refinery, which commenced operations in 2023, was anticipated to cut down Nigeria’s dependence on fuel imports.
Nonetheless, its pricing strategy still aligns closely with international oil benchmarks like Brent and WTI crude futures. (Reuters)
